Did you know that 50% of marriages end in divorce? Or that 22% of Gen Z is queer? What about 57.3% of Americans do most of their shopping at Walmart?
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that focuses on gathering and summarizing data (often with graphs and charts). Schools use statistics to track the reading levels of their students, meteorologists use it to more accurately predict the weather, and politicians use it to better understand the opinions of voters. In this module, we’re going to focus on how statistics are used, and how these numbers can be misused and manipulated, in the news.
When the methodology is sound, statistics are facts about God’s world: 49.6% of the population is female, Apple stock is up 185,000% since 1984, 71% of Earth is covered in water. These things are well-researched and true, but not all statistics are equally accurate.
Let’s dive into three things to double-check when you hear a statistic:
- Did I hear that right? The commonly-repeated statistic that “50% of marriages end in divorce” comes from studies in the 1970s and 1990s that predicted divorce would increase to 50%. The studies didn’t state the divorce rate was that high (and, spoiler… it never has been; it’s currently around 40%). This bad statistic is likely due to people misunderstanding (and then repeating) a study’s conclusion.
- Does this mean what I think it does? Recent, reliable polls have shown that 22.3% of Gen Z identifies as LGBTQ+. While this may be true, it also may not mean what you think it does. Diving one layer deeper, you find that the overwhelming majority of that 22.3% are Gen Z women who identify as bisexual but have only ever been in heterosexual relationships. So while 22.3% identify as LGBTQ+, much fewer are in LGBTQ+ relationships.
- Is the source reliable? It turns out it’s not true 57.3% of Americans do most of their shopping at Walmart… that statistic is from a 2016 Twitter poll with 171 respondents. To receive reliable results, statistical studies must be conducted properly with a sufficient sample size, allowing for the results to be reviewed and replicated by others.
So, when you hear a statistic, don’t immediately accept it as fact. Instead, get curious!
While it may not be reasonable to peer review the methodology of a scientific study, we should always put at least one minute of extra effort into validating a statistic before repeating it as fact. Within 60 seconds, you can usually tell if it was conducted by a research team (vs. a social media poll) and re-read the headline takeaway to ensure you have properly understood what the study is concluding.
This small bit of extra effort is itself glorifying to God (Colossians 3:23) and helps protect us against spreading false information (Proverbs 12:22).